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Predict the Outcome · Free

Counterintuitive pricing

Rewards, urgency and paywalls, and the outcomes nobody expected.

Counterintuitive pricing

Round 1 of 5Make your first call

x
StarbucksPay
Real case

Starbucks Rewards members collect Stars toward free drinks. At the end of fiscal 2025, what share of the sales dollars in Starbucks’ US company-operated stores came from Rewards members?

About 18%About 33%About 58%About 81%

How a round works

Guess first. Then the evidence.

Choosing before you learn turns every outcome into a surprise you wanted to see. That is the whole trick, and it is how the lessons stick.

  1. 1. Read the story

    A real company’s situation in two or three sentences: the stage it was in, the problem, the decision. No spoilers.

  2. 2. Make your call

    Three or four plausible outcomes. No trick questions: every option is something a smart team might expect.

  3. 3. See what happened

    The real, dated number, its source, two grades and the caveats, then the psychology behind it and what it means at your stage.

Two grades on every reveal

The number is graded by its source; the link grades how well we know the psychology explains it.

  • Case grade A. From a regulator, a public filing or a peer-reviewed study. a filing, regulator or peer-reviewed study
  • Case grade B. Company-reported numbers. the company reporting on itself
  • Case grade C. Press or secondary reporting. press or secondary reporting
  • Evidence grade D. Practitioner framework or anecdote: plausible, untested. our inference: plausible, untested, many causes

Fair-play rules

  • Only real, dated cases with a source you can open.
  • Wrong answers are explained, never mocked.
  • Your score credits real answers only. No streaks, no leaderboards.
  • No success is pinned on a single technique.

Your product has its own version of this.

Find the stage you're stuck in, then make one move. Connecting Gamify It is free; Pro starts it.