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Predict the outcome.

Real companies, real numbers. Make your call, then see what actually happened: the dated result, its source, how much to trust it and the psychology behind it.

Why we measure

Round 1 of 5Make your first call

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24 Hour Fitness (megastudy)Return
Real case

Scientists tested 54 different programs (rewards, reminders, plans) on 61,293 gym members for four weeks. About 45% of the programs raised gym visits while they ran. How many still showed an effect after they ended?

About 45%: the habits stuckAbout 25%About 15%About 8%

How a round works

Guess first. Then the evidence.

Choosing before you learn turns every outcome into a surprise you wanted to see. That is the whole trick, and it is how the lessons stick.

  1. 1. Read the story

    A real company’s situation in two or three sentences: the stage it was in, the problem, the decision. No spoilers.

  2. 2. Make your call

    Three or four plausible outcomes. No trick questions: every option is something a smart team might expect.

  3. 3. See what happened

    The real, dated number, its source, two grades and the caveats, then the psychology behind it and what it means at your stage.

Two grades on every reveal

The number is graded by its source; the link grades how well we know the psychology explains it.

  • Case grade A. From a regulator, a public filing or a peer-reviewed study. a filing, regulator or peer-reviewed study
  • Case grade B. Company-reported numbers. the company reporting on itself
  • Case grade C. Press or secondary reporting. press or secondary reporting
  • Evidence grade D. Practitioner framework or anecdote: plausible, untested. our inference: plausible, untested, many causes

Fair-play rules

  • Only real, dated cases with a source you can open.
  • Wrong answers are explained, never mocked.
  • Your score credits real answers only. No streaks, no leaderboards.
  • No success is pinned on a single technique.

More sets

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