Technique · Influence
Self-prediction prompt
Ask users to predict a near-term action they already want to take ("Planning to finish the first lesson today?" with Yes and Not today), then make that action easy at the moment they named. Saying yes to a prediction is a small commitment that raises follow-through.
Plain label: ask users to predict their next stepAlso known as: question-behavior effect, self-prophecy, RSVP prompt, will you finish today?
How it works
When people are asked whether they will do something desirable, most say yes, and the stated prediction then pulls their behavior toward it so they stay consistent. The effect is small but reliable, and strongest for actions people already value. Turning the prediction into a guilt lever later ("you said you would") breaks the sense of free choice that makes it work.
In the book. When people are asked to forecast whether they will do something worthwhile, more of them then do it (Ch.3, pp.51-52). INF-T-CC-03 (Influence Ch.3, p.51)
In a product [S]. A one-tap prediction right after a first win, tied to a reminder the user schedules.
Evidence Evidence grade B. Moderate evidence: solid studies with some limits.. Reliable but small in meta-analyses.
Evidence warning
Book figures come from single, older studies; meta-analytic effects are small.
What the research says
In the original study, residents asked to predict whether they would volunteer for a charity later volunteered at a far higher rate than residents simply asked to volunteer (a reported rise of about 700%).
Influence Ch.3, p.51 (Sherman), 1980
A meta-analytic synthesis of many studies found that asking people about a future behavior changes it, with a small average effect.
Spangenberg, Kareklas, Devezer & Sprott, Journal of Consumer Psychology, 2016
Before you start
- The value event is tracked.
How to build it
- Mobile
- After the first lesson, ask "Will you do Lesson 2 tomorrow?" with Yes and Not now; on yes, offer a reminder at a time the user picks.
- Web
- At the end of onboarding, ask how many sessions the user plans this week and show progress against their own number.
- Email and SMS
- For events and webinars, ask registrants to confirm they will attend and offer a calendar add on the same screen.
What can go wrong
- Quoting the prediction back in cancellation or guilt messages.
- Asking for predictions about actions users do not care about.
Pairs well with
- Pairs with F21 if-then plans: the prediction is stronger with a time and a place.
- Pairs with in-t-cc-09 for longer goals.
Limits
What we don’t claim
- Left Brain and Right Brain are a metaphor for extrinsic and intrinsic motivation, not a claim about neuroscience.Actionable Gamification Ch.13, pp.342-343
Sources
Influence · Robert Cialdini
Ch.3, p.51
On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1980
A meta-analytic synthesis of the question-behavior effect · Journal of Consumer Psychology, 2016
Evidence grade B. Moderate evidence: solid studies with some limits.
Source IDs: INF-T-CC-03
Book content is paraphrased, never quoted at length. Last verified October 24, 2026.
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