Deal win rate

• Metric

  Average order value with revenue quality

  order value net of discounts and refunds

  Average order value after discounts and refunds, read with discount dependence and refund rate as its quality checks. The Pay health metric for stores.

• Metric

  Cancellations within 30 days

  early cancels after starting to pay

  Share of new subscribers who cancel within 30 days. A revenue-quality guardrail that catches conversions bought with pressure; it can't be judged before it matures.

• Metric

  Checkout completion

  started checkouts that finish

  Orders divided by checkout starts. About 45% is typical and 66% is top-decile in store data; around 70% of carts are abandoned across studies. Anxiety reducers and all-in pricing act here.

• Metric

  Conversion by tenure (the smile graph)

  share paying by months since sign-up

  Share of each sign-up cohort paying at month 0, 1, 2 and later. When habits form, the paying share rises with tenure; a flat line suggests pressure arrived before value or that devoted users have nothing deeper to buy.

• Metric

  Cost per activated user

  acquisition cost per user who reaches value

  Acquisition spend divided by the new users it brought who reached first value. Judging channels on activated users instead of sign-ups keeps spend away from traffic that never sticks.

• Metric

  Discount dependence

  share of orders that needed a discount

  Share of orders (or first payments) that used a discount code. Rising dependence means discounts are buying orders that full price wouldn't, and those buyers tend to leave when the discount ends.

Sources

Book content is paraphrased, never quoted at length. Last verified October 24, 2026.