Playbook · Mature to Stalled / declining
Mature and Stalled × Start
A large base brings very different newcomers. Split onboarding by segment, rescue high-value accounts with a person before their churn point, and re-mine the Habit Path, which drifts as the product changes.
- M4 Mature
- Can we deepen and protect the habit?
- M5 Stalled / declining
- Is this a discovery collapse, an endgame collapse or novelty decay?
- Start
- Do new users reach their first big win fast, and feel smart doing it?
M4-M5 × Start
The playbook
Goal. Each important segment gets a first session built for it.
Moves. Onboarding per segment, using data-driven segments rather than player types OCT-M09 (Actionable Gamification Ch.3, p.42); a human mentor before the churn point for high-value accounts GT#61 (Actionable Gamification Ch.9, p.196); re-mine the Habit Path on recent cohorts HK-T13 (Hooked Ch.3); at Stalled, remove features new users no longer need HK-ACT43 (Hooked Ch.8).
Lead with these moves
- TechniqueEvidence grade D. Practitioner framework or anecdote: plausible, untested.
Onboarding by segment: Level III (OCT-M09)
separate journeys for different user groups
Map where each user segment's motivation breaks across the four phases, then give each segment its own first steps and route to progress: admins and end users, new and returning users, creators and viewers. Chou's warning case is a product where only the most aggressive users stay.
- TechniqueEvidence grade D. Practitioner framework or anecdote: plausible, untested.
Mentorship: newcomer rescue (GT#61)
veteran guide before the drop-off point
Connect new users with an experienced user or a real person just before the point where newcomers usually quit. Chou's own story: about 40 minutes into a game he meant to try briefly, a mentor appeared, gave him a strong item and fought beside him, and he kept playing for two months.
Also in season
- Evidence grade C. Limited evidence: few or small studies.Steer new users down the Habit Pathmake the action that predicts retention the easy path
- Evidence grade C. Limited evidence: few or small studies.Remove what the loyal segment doesn't usesubtractive change
- Evidence grade D. Practitioner framework or anecdote: plausible, untested.Evolved UI (GT#37)progressive disclosure
- Evidence grade D. Practitioner framework or anecdote: plausible, untested.First use as a complete mini-hooklearn-by-doing first session
Not now
- Content re-skinsA new coat of paint fades faster than the content it covers.
- Urgency and loss pushes on a tired basePressure on a tired base speeds up the exits it is meant to stop.
How to measure it
Questions to answer first
- Which customer groups drop off at which phase: before trying, during onboarding, in regular use, or as veterans?
- When do your most valuable new accounts decide to leave, and does a real person reach out before that point?
- What did your most habitual users do in their first two weeks that others didn't?
- Which onboarding step loses the largest share of the users who reach it, and what does it ask of them?
- Which steps before the first win could you remove entirely, or move to after it?
- At the same age, do newer cohorts retain better, the same, or worse than older ones?
Limits
What we don’t claim
- The Hook Model is a practical design tool, not a validated or complete theory of behavior.Hooked, Introduction
- Octalysis is a practitioner framework built from observing games, not a validated scientific model.Actionable Gamification Ch.15, pp.399-400
- Bartle himself doubted his player types outside the settings he studied.
- Seasons are defaults for the cell. Evidence from your own product can move a technique in or out of season.
- A playbook names candidate moves; which one goes first depends on the binding constraint in your product.
Sources
Hooked · Nir Eyal
Ch.3 · Ch.8
Actionable Gamification · Yu-kai Chou
Ch.3, p.42 · Ch.9, p.196
Source IDs: OCT-M09GT#61HK-T13HK-ACT43
Book content is paraphrased, never quoted at length. Last verified October 24, 2026.
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